What A Friday Brawl! Moneyball Wins #1, Lion King 3D Holds #2, Dolphin Tale #3, Abduction #4 + Killer Elite #5 Underwhelm

FRIDAY11 PM, 2NDUPDATE: Finally, I have some clarityfollowing Rentrak hiccups during the day and early evening. Not to mentionevery studio’s confusion over the ordering of the Top 5 because of fierce fights going on at the North American box office throughout today. And, geez,I’m supposed to be on vacation: 1. My sources say Sony’s newcomerMoneyball has been rising as the night goes on for maybe the best baseball-themed opening ever. It’s definitelyNo. 1 Friday with approximately $6.8M from 2,993 theaters. (As a Sony exec told me, “$6 million would be great. $7 million amazing. $8 million would be a triumph.”) With a healthy adult bump tomorrow, it’s looking at a $21M weekend. That solid number helps keep Brad Pitt’s star wattage shining and his awards chances climbing because ofthis well-reviewed male-centric sports movie.Audiences really liked this pic: it received all A’s — male, female, young, old — from CinemaScore. But a rival studio exec points out, “The audience is very old – almost 60% of audience over 50.” 2. Even Disney is surprised that its Lion King 3D is in 2nd place tonight from 2,330 theaters after its huge first-place finish last weekend.But rival studios tell me itgot a boost today from the rain backEast for a $6.2M Friday foran excellent hold of-31% froma week ago.With the normal kiddie matinee bump, that’s a $21M weekend as well.This re-release isprojectedto hit a cume of $60M by Monday. Here’s my question: Why is it that in all the promotional hype I’ve been sent by the studio about this pic, no one at Disney is thanking Jeffrey Katzenberg for micro-managing the original? C’mon, Mouse House, give credit where credit is due. Even if Jeffrey is a big pain ineveryone’s ass. 3. Not far behind is Alcon Entertainment’s Dolphin Tale in 3,507 theaters.Distributor Warner Brossaid it opened with $5M today and rival studios think it’s headed to $17M for the weekend.Alcon is expectingthe heartstrings-pulling pic to jump 60% on Saturday because of the family film bump and win the weekend.Hmm. Remember,it’s also playing in the most theaters.According toCinemaScores, parents and kidsaudiences are giving it an A+. “The film is very inspirational, and tracking is terrific.We will own the family marketplace,” an exec told me.Warner Bros was looking to give Moneyball a run for No. 1this weekend, but didn’t anticipate the continued strength of Lion King 3D. The strategy for Dolphin Tale was to reach primarily parents and kids with this real-lifestory andfine ensemble cast. The studiodevised a very long trailer campaign in order to get maximum exposurebeginning in April and playing through the summer on everything from Rio to Cars 2.The TV strategy wasrobust, covering everything from kids cable in late summer before school started, through key season premieres such as Dancing With The Stars and Biggest Loser,to a wide array of sponsorships with Discovery, Teen Nick, Lifetime, Nation Geographic, Disney XD, MTV, and more.Warner Bros crafted an aggressive word-of-mouth screening program that involved 3 full roundsin the top 60 markets. Military and home schoolers were targeted as well asyouth groups and other family-oriented orgs. The director and cast completed a 7-market PA tour that includeda junket to accommodate Winter, the real-life star of the film who had her ownlive Winter-cam.Online, there was afirst-time integration with the Spongebob Squarepants Facebook page given thesea theme. 4.Lionsgate’s Abduction in 3,118 theaters may end up$3.8M Friday and what could be only a$10M opening for the weekend depending on how front-loaded it becomes. (That’s what happened to Zac Efron in Charlie St Cloud.)Through Sunday,Hollywood eyes will be focused onits starTaylor Lautner in his first leading man role in an action thrillerbecause he’s been very much in demand — presumably because of his enormous Twi-hard fan base and aggressive promotion of his films –but not because of any solo box office which the 19-year-old has done yet. Then again, I’velearned thatLautner’s $36M-budget action thriller was outspent 4-to-1 in marketing dollars by both Sony and Warner Bros leading up to this weekend. (Shame on Lionsgate’s Jon Feltheimer for tying everyone’s hands even after powerless Alli Shearmur pleaded.)So the jury is still out on whether this Twilight kid can open an envelope,especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one was directed by John Singleton. (“Silly” and “convuluted” were the words used most often to describe it.) Audiences didn’t think it was quite as bad as critics, giving it a B- CinemaScore.Too bad Lionsgate can’t seem to make a decent movie or market one anymore. A $10Moutcome is less than the $12M-$14M range which the studio told me it needed to show a “nice profit” for the film.”ButTaylors a great kid. Hes worked hard for us, doing about 8 national TV shows and endless amounts of press,” one of the execs said to me. “We know the opening weekend box office averages for Taylors Twilight co-stars, so this falls in the zone of what was to be expected. There are lots of movies opening this weekend to a variety of audiences, but ours is laser-targeted to tweens and we hope to dominate that market.”Lionsgatesimultaneously streamed the premiere to an additional 20 regional markets and broadcast the Red Carpet online as ‘The Abduction Fan Premiere Live Event’with 50M impressions.Media promotions included ABC Family andChannel One, the in-school network that reaches 2.3 million teens aged 1517.Other youth-focused exploitation includedan announcer spot for Tay-Tay at the VMAs (tied to a sweepstakes to ‘Get Abducted’ to the awards). It wasn’t nearly enough. 5.Remains to be seen if Abduction can edge out Killer Elite whichalso may be $10M for the weekend from 2,986 theaters. But when veteran stars like Robert DeNiro, Jason Stathem, and Clive Owenas an intriguing trio still can’t knock off Lautner solo in a lousy movie, that’s worth noting. Open Road Films is expressingoptimism that itspic will likely go upon Saturday after its $3.5M debut Friday. CinemaScore was a better B. I hear Open Roadacquired the film for nothing, only P&A, so it’ll be nicely profitable. Not bad for the company’s first release.A few notes about the Killer Elite marketing campaign: it had the predictablyheavy presence in sports including an ‘NFL on FOX’ TV promotion with a “Killer” prize of trip to LA to hang out with the Fox sports on-air guys, apromotion with Spike TV’s UFC Fight Night, and even Comedy Central’s Charlie Sheen Roast.De Niro made a rare late-night talk show appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live where he sat down with Kimmel’s security guard-turned celeb interviewer Guillermo. AndMTV Networks did a direct email campaign to target demos within their very largecustomer database. Here’s the rest of the Top 10 6. Contagion (Participant/Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,136 Theaters] Friday $2.8M, Estimated Weekend $9M, Estimated Cume $57.5M 7. Drive (FilmDistrict) Week 2 [2,904 Theaters] Friday $2M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $21.6M 8. The Help (Participant/DreamWorks/Disney] Week 7 [2,695 Theaters] Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated cume $154.5M 9. I Don’t Know How She Does It (Weinstein Co) Week 2 [2,490 Theaters] Friday $700K (-55%), Estimated weekend $2M,Estimated Cume $8M 10. Straw Dogs (Sony) Week 2 [2,408 Theaters] Friday $600K (-62%), Estimated Weekend $1.8M, Estimated Cume $8.5M FRIDAY 4 PM: On vacation. So box office is brought to you from a sunny climate where the palm trees sway in time to the dancing trade winds… But back home there’s a fierce fight going on. These are very early grosses, and my sources say Rentrak has been experiencing problems today — thus giving Hollywood even more Maalox moments than usual. Sony’s Moneyball starring Brad Pitt will be No. 1 with approx $8M Friday and possibly mid-$20sM for the weekend. That solid number helps Brad Pitt’s awards chances in this well-received male-centric sports movie. Right now Alcon Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Dolphin Tale and Lionsgate’s Abduction are battling for No. 2 with around $6M today and what could be high teens for the weekend. Interesting, because the heartstrings-pulling pic was tracking much better. Then again, Taylor Lautner’s action thriller is playing in 389 less theaters. So anyone who claimed this Twilight kid couldn’t open an envelope is wrong, wrong, wrong: there are major stars who would be thrilled with that outcome, especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one. Open Road’s Killer Elite looks a notch lower – maybe $5M today, and low teens for the weekend. Frequent updates coming with full analysis.

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